A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
